Bitcoin to $10K in 2026? Why Bloomberg’s Crash Thesis Looks Ultra Wrong

A Bloomberg analyst sees Bitcoin (BTC) crashing toward $10,000 in 2026. But is it even possible? Let’s examine.

Why Bitcoin Risks Falling Toward $10,000, According to Bloomberg Analyst

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said that $10,000 represents Bitcoin’s long-term statistical center because it was the most transacted price zone before the pandemic-era stimulus cycle.

In his view, the surge above that level reflected extraordinary monetary expansion and speculative excess rather than durable structural value.

McGlone treated Bitcoin as a high-beta extension of equities, overlaying the cryptocurrency with the S&P 500 to show that both assets expanded during peak liquidity conditions.

If stocks have topped and global liquidity contracts, he expects Bitcoin to unwind disproportionately.

Additionally, he argues the crypto market’s expanding token supply dilutes capital and increases fragility. When sentiment turns and leverage unwinds, speculative flows reverse quickly.

In short, his thesis says Bitcoin’s post-2020 rally depends on excess liquidity. If that excess fades, price gravitates back toward its pre-stimulus equilibrium near $10,000.

What I Think McGlone Got Wrong About Bitcoin

McGlone assumes Bitcoin can fall back to $10,000 because that was the price area where it traded the most in 2019. But the Bitcoin market in 2026 does not run on the same buyers it had back then.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs now represent a structural bid. Aggregators that track ETF balances show ETFs holding roughly 1.46 million BTC, about 6.9% of the 21 million cap.

Major funds also sit at meaningful scale on their own, including BlackRock’s IBIT currently managing around $58 billion worth of BTC.

Public companies add another sticky layer of demand. BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows public companies holding about 1.136 million BTC across ~194 listed firms. That is not 2019-era price discovery.

Coming to McGlone’s “unlimited supply of competitors” point, new tokens do not inflate Bitcoin’s supply. In stress regimes, traders often rotate out of altcoins and into Bitcoin.

Kaiko’s research notes Bitcoin’s volume dominance rising as prices fall and volatility spikes, framing BTC as the market’s “crypto safe haven” during uncertainty.

A drop to $10,000 would still require a true liquidation cascade, mixed with sustained ETF outflows plus forced deleveraging, not just “more altcoins.”

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go in 2026?

The weekly chart keeps my worst-case zone anchored to the 2.618 Fib line near $45,700, which sits inside my broader $45,000–$50,000 floor.

This Fib ladder has mapped BTC’s cycle pivots unusually well: price repeatedly stalled or reversed around the upper bands (notably the 4.236–4.618 zone near the 2025 top), while prior pullbacks also respected intermediate Fib shelves as support/resistance before trend continuation.

BTC is now pressing the rising long-term trendline and the 200-week EMA (~$68,300), so a decisive breakdown would make the 2.618 level the next clean, historically demand area.