XRP News Today: Market Structure Buzz Fuels Rebound

XRP snaps a three-day losing streak amid renewed optimism over crypto-friendly legislation being in place by the spring.

Hotter-than-expected US Core PCE Price Index figures dampened bets on a June Fed rate cut, briefly sending XRP to a Friday, February 20, low of $1.3780. Service PMI data contributed to the shift in sentiment toward the Fed’s policy stance.

However, rising expectations that the Market Structure Bill will pass the US Senate before the summer boosted demand for XRP. A rebound in demand for XRP-spot ETFs contributed to the positive sentiment.

Importantly, expectations that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and robust demand for US-XRP-spot ETFs continue to support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.5.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

US Personal Income and Outlays Report Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets

On February 20, US economic indicators influenced expectations of a June Fed rate cut. The US Core PCE Price Index rose 3.0% year-on-year in December, up from 2.8% in November. Meanwhile, personal income increased 0.3% month-on-month in December (Nov: 0.4%), with personal spending up 0.4% MoM (Nov: 0.4%).

While the December figures cooled Fed rate cut bets, US Service sector activity slowed in February. The S&P Global Services PMI fell from 52.7 in January to 52.3%. However, input prices increased, with output prices rising at the sharpest pace since August, suggesting a pickup in inflation. These price trends contributed to the lower probability of a June rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut fell from 58.6% on February 19 to 51.4% on February 20.

Market Structure Bill Optimism Boosts XRP Demand

While easing expectations of a Fed rate cut weighed on XRP, improving sentiment toward the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill fueled buying interest in the token.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse gave a 90% chance that lawmakers will pass the CLARITY Act by April. Garlinghouse spoke on Fox Business following the White House’s third session on stablecoin yields. The optimism eased concerns that the TradFi-DeFi stalemate over stablecoin yields would roadblock broader legislation that would deliver clear rules of the road for the digital asset space.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director, President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, shared the optimism from Thursday’s White House session, stating:

“Yesterday’s meeting was a big step forward. We’re close. Provided we continue to have good faith engagement from both sides on the issue, I fully expect we will meet our deadline.”

The White House set a March 1 deadline for both sides to reach an agreement. Significantly, the passing of crypto-friendly legislation could be a key price catalyst. On July 17, 2025, XRP soared 14.69% after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

XRP has tumbled 13.5% in February, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

Nevertheless, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, improving sentiment toward the US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility reaffirm the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could challenge the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A full-blown US-Iran conflict.
• US economic data tempers bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

Traders should also consider Bank of Japan rhetoric, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would signal multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These scenarios would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reaffirm the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP gained 1.57% on February 20, reversing the previous day’s 1.08% loss to close at $1.4290. The token tracked the broader crypto market cap, which advanced 1.42%.

Despite Friday’s rebound, XRP remained well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish bias. However, the 50-day EMA flattened, signaling easing near-term selling pressure. Furthermore, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these positive fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6782.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1089.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a breakout above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained break above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and reinforce the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s rate path.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path.
• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Crucial Support

Despite Friday’s gains, XRP has dropped 3.46% this week, affirming the existing bearish trend. A break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, reclaiming $1.5 would open the door to testing $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reinforcing the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $10.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Geopolitics, Crypto Legislation, and ETF Flows in Focus

Looking ahead, several key events expose XRP to heightened volatility. Increased tensions in the Middle East and a US-Iran conflict would likely overshadow crypto-related legislative developments.

Nevertheless, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill would support the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for XRP.

However, central bank rhetoric, US economic data, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also dictate XRP’s price projection.

A more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost sentiment. Robust appetite for US XRP-spot ETFs and favorable crypto-related legislative developments would fuel buying interest in XRP.

In summary, these scenarios would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these events may send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A breakout above $3.66 would reaffirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.