BTC Bulls Need to Revisit $30,000 or Face a Return to sub-$28,500

Key Insights:

• On Monday, BTC gained 0.90% to end the day at $29,754.
• Despite the bullish session, BTC continued to fall short of $30,000 on uncertainty over the pending spot BTC ETF decisions.
• The near-term technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $30,000.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.90%. After ending the day flat on Sunday, BTC wrapped the day up at $29,754. Significantly, BTC fell short of $30,000 for the fifth consecutive session.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was down 0.08% to $29,731. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $29,787 before falling to a low of $29,604.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD sitting below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sat above the 50-day ($29,476) and 200-day ($27,222) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA widened from the 200-day EMA, signaling further gains.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 51.35 reading reflects moderately bullish sentiment. The RSI signals a return to $30,000 to target the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, BTC remains below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, BTC sits above the 200-day ($29,599) and 50-day ($29,482) EMAs, sending bullish near and longer-term price signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, a bullish price signal. A hold above the EMAs ($29,599) would give the bulls a run at the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band. However, a fall through the EMAs would bring sub-$28,500 and the $27,500 – $26,850 support band into view.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 58.69 indicates a bullish stance, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the EMAs, signaling a return to $30,000.

BTC Fell Short of $30,000 Despite PayPal Stablecoin Launch

It was a busy start to the week, with news hitting the wires of PayPal (PYPL) launching PayPal USD (PYUSD), a dollar stablecoin fully backed by US dollar deposits, short-term US Treasuries, and similar cash equivalents, redeemable 1:1 for the dollar. PYUSD is an ERC-20 token issued on the Ethereum blockchain.

According to the press release,

“PayPal USD will be available to consumers, merchants, and developers to seamlessly connect fiat and digital currencies.”

While the launch of PYUSD does not directly affect the adoption of BTC, the increased adoption of cryptos and digital currencies is price positive.

However, uncertainty toward the SEC approval of the spot BTC ETF applications and SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple ruling remained headwinds.

The Day Ahead

Investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires. SEC v Ripple-related chatter, ETF updates, and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will move the dial.

However, US lawmaker chatter and SEC activity would also need consideration. Legislation to deliver a crypto regulatory framework supporting innovation and protecting consumers should support BTC and the broader market.