Cardano Could Fall 40%–50% as ADA Price Forms Two Bearish Patterns

Cardano’s ADA token is trading roughly 95% below its record high, and two bearish technical setups suggest its prolonged downtrend may not be over yet.

ADA Bear Pennant Targets $0.08

ADA was trading near $0.164 on July 29 after spending several weeks consolidating inside what appears to be a bear pennant.

The setup began with the token’s sharp June decline from approximately $0.25–$0.26 toward the $0.14–$0.15 range. This sell-off created the pennant’s “flagpole.”

ADA subsequently began fluctuating between a descending resistance trendline and an ascending support trendline, forming a tightening triangular structure.

A bear pennant typically resolves in the direction of the preceding trend once the price breaks below its lower boundary. Traders calculate the downside target by subtracting the flagpole’s height from the potential breakdown point.

For ADA, a decisive daily close below the pennant support near $0.15 could confirm the bearish continuation setup. The resulting measured target sits near $0.075–$0.08, including the chart’s projected objective around $0.079.

That would amount to a decline of roughly 50% from current prices.

ADA may encounter interim support near $0.13 and $0.11 before reaching the projected pennant target. Conversely, a close above the pennant resistance and the 50-day exponential moving average near $0.174 would weaken the immediate breakdown scenario.

Cardano Bear Flag Sees 40% Decline

ADA’s broader daily chart also resembles a bear flag, reinforcing the downside risks highlighted by the smaller pennant.

The flag consists of the same sharp June decline, followed by a weak recovery inside an ascending parallel channel. Such upward-sloping consolidation during a prevailing downtrend often reflects temporary buying rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

ADA’s flag support currently appears near $0.15–$0.155. A break below this region could trigger another decline resembling the initial flagpole move.

Using a conservative flagpole measurement places the downside target near $0.096, approximately 40% below the current price.

The bearish outlook receives additional support from ADA’s position below its major moving averages. The token remains under its 50-day EMA near $0.174, 100-day EMA around $0.199, and 200-day EMA close to $0.264.

A sustained move above $0.19–$0.20 would invalidate much of the bear-flag structure and reduce the probability of the projected 40%–50% correction.