Comex Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – December 2, 2016 Forecast

February Comex Gold futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Several factors could influence the direction of the market today including technically oversold conditions, the U.S. Dollar, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. stock market. This is why the report is a toss-up, in my opinion.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1162.20 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The trend will turn up on a trade through $1123.50 and strengthen over $1236.10.

The main range is $1055.20 to $1387.10. Its retracement zone is $1221.20 to $1182.00. This zone is currently controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Currently, there is a downside bias because the market is trading on the weak side of this zone.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1174.00 and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market today is likely going to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $1182.00.

A sustained move under $1182.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. The next target is yesterday’s low at $1162.20. This could be the trigger point for the start of a steep sell-off since the next major support doesn’t come in until $1055.20.

Crossing to the strong side of the Fib level at $1182.00 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a short-covering rally into the downtrending angle at $1192.10. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into a resistance cluster at $1213.00 to $1214.10.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $1182.00 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if buyers have returned or if the selling pressure is increasing.