Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – August 11, 2015 Forecast

On Monday, September Comex High Grade Copper futures posted a potentially bullish outside move, closing price reversal bottom. Although the session began with the market technically oversold, the move is suspicious because it came before the People’s Bank of China made its currency devaluation announcement. It looks as if the insiders knew about the devaluation and were able to aggressively cover some of their shorts before the news was released.

Ignoring the fundamental events, yesterday’s surge was triggered when a pair of downtrending angles that had been guiding the market lower since June were taken out with conviction. These angles come in at 2.5540 and 2.5050 today. A break back below these levels will mean that yesterday’s rally was triggered by buy stops rather than aggressive buying.

The closing price reversal bottom was confirmed during Tuesday’s pre-market session when 2.4110 was taken out. The rally, however, stopped at 2.4290, slightly below the main top at 2.4460. A trade through this top will change the main trend to up on the daily chart.

The main range is 2.6550 to 2.3075. Its retracement zone at 2.4815 to 2.525 becomes the primary upside target if 2.4460 is taken out. A downtrending angle passes through this zone at 2.5050, making it a valid downside target also.

The short-term range is 2.3075 to 2.4290. Its pivot is 2.3685. The intermediate range is 2.4460 to 2.3075. Its pivot is 2.3770. The two pivots are controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Based on the pre-market session, look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over 2.3770 and a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under 2.3685. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at 2.3390 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.