Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – August 20, 2015 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures reached a new multi-year low on Wednesday, but there was very little follow-through to the downside. Although the technical bounce off the low was not strong enough to produce a solid bottoming signal, it did create enough upside momentum to fuel a follow-through rally during today’s pre-market session.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2.2945 will make 2.2625 a new minor bottom. A new minor range will also form between 2.4350 and 2.2625, making its 50% level or pivot at 2.3490 a potential upside target.

Before the market can reach the upside target, it has to get through the price cluster formed by a long-term and short-term angles at 2.2905 and 2.2950. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside if there is increased volume behind the move.

If fresh selling comes in at 2.2905 to 2.2950 with conviction then it may create enough downside momentum to challenge yesterday’s low at 2.2625. This could lead to further selling pressure into the May 14, 2009 bottom at 2.2440. A failure to hold this price level could eventually lead to a break into the April 28, 2009 bottom at 2.1740.

The direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep, short-term angle at 2.2950. Watch the order flow and read the price action at this price. The buying will either be strong enough to trigger an acceleration toward the pivot at 2.3490. Or, the selling will be strong enough to resume the downtrend.