Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – June 22, 2017 Forecast

September Comex High Grade Copper futures are trending higher on Thursday. The New York market is following the strong trade in London. The catalyst behind the rally is data which showed the metal’s shift to a global supply deficit.

According to industry data released earlier today, the global world refined copper market showed a deficit of 5,000 tonnes in March, compared with a 102,000 tonne surplus in February.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Today’s higher-high turned $2.5490 into a new secondary higher bottom.

The short-term range is $2.6610 to $2.5490. Its retracement zone is $2.6050 to $2.6185. Copper is straddling this zone today. Trader reaction to this zone should tell us if the buying is getting stronger, or if sellers are still trying to form a secondary lower top.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $2.6175, the direction of the copper market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $2.6185.

A sustained move over $2.6185 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into the next downtrending angle at $2.6385. This is the trigger point for an extension into angles at $2.6450 and $2.6500. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the $2.6610 main top.

The inability to overcome $2.6185 will signal the presence of sellers. Crossing under the downtrending angle at $2.6160 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the market back into the short-term 50% level at $2.6050.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under $2.6050. If sellers come in heavy under this level then we could see a break all the way back to the major support angle at $2.5650.

Closing over $2.6185 today will indicate that the buying is serious especially given the bullish fundamental news. Closing below $2.6050 will be a sign of weakness and that the market is not ready to rally yet.