Stock Market Today: U.S. Stocks Edge Higher as SpaceX Steals the Spotlight

SpaceX Debuts at $150, Dow Jumps 350 Points

SpaceX opened at $150 on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, well above the $135 IPO price. Shares ran more than 20% higher right after the open and were up roughly 26% by midday. The largest IPO in history is trading like the market wanted it. That enthusiasm is spreading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is leading, up 350.16 points or 0.69%. The S&P 500 has gained 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.26%.

The Iran deal is adding to the bid. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that negotiators reached a final agreed-upon text. Iranian state media said the memorandum includes U.S. oil sanctions being lifted in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A signing in Switzerland could come as early as Sunday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures have fallen roughly 3%, trading near $84 a barrel.

Stocks in the News

AMD climbed 4% Friday, the strongest move among major chip names. Alphabet gained roughly 1%. Both are benefiting from the broader risk-on tone.

NVIDIA is trading flat. Broadcom, Palantir Technologies, Amazon, and Microsoft are all lower. The artificial intelligence trade is not moving in one direction. Some names are catching the SpaceX enthusiasm. Others are giving back gains from earlier in the week.

Daily S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index turned its main trend lower on Tuesday, but there hasn’t been any follow-through to the downside. A trade through 7620.90 will change the main trend to up. A move through 7237.85 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main range is 7620.90 to 7237.85. That makes its retracement zone at 7429.38 to 7474.57 the area to watch into the close.

A sustained move under 7429.38 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible pullback into the 50-day moving average at 7247.78 and the swing bottom at 7237.85. The latter could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Overtaking and sustaining the rally over 7474.57 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend toward the record high at 7620.90.

Daily Nasdaq-100 Index Technical Analysis

The key area to watch into the close for the Nasdaq-100 Index is 26085.30 to 26346.05. Late in the session, this area is acting like resistance.

A sustained move under 26085.30 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50-day moving average at 25211.22. A trade through this week’s swing low at 24980.38 could trigger an acceleration into 23940.23.

On the upside, the key trigger for a possible upside breakout is 26346.05. Overcoming this level with conviction could launch a strong rally into the record high at 27190.21.

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average changed the main trend to down, according to the daily swing chart, earlier in the week, but momentum has shifted to the upside with the crossing of a key short-term retracement zone.

The main trend will change to up on a breakout over 51657.89. A move through 49909.07 will reaffirm the downtrend. The key area to watch is 50% to 61.8% of the range at 50781.48 to 50989.84. Trader reaction to this zone will set the tone into the close.

Right now, the market is trading on the strong side of this zone. If it continues to build strength over 50989.84, buyers could take a run at the record high at 51657.89.

If sellers come in late with enough power to cross to the bearish side of 50783.48 then look for a weak close with 50183.23 the first target, followed by the swing bottom at 49909.07 and the 50-day moving average at 49558.87.

SpaceX Changed the IPO Conversation

The $150 open against a $135 IPO price is a strong debut. The 26% gain by midday tells you institutional demand exceeded what the underwriters allocated. The weeks of chip selling that may have been driven by accounts raising cash for this allocation are now behind the market. That overhang is gone as of Friday morning.

Other private companies are watching that 26% first-day gain. If SpaceX opens the door to a wave of large filings, that pulls more capital out of existing positions over time. For Friday, the debut answered the one question that mattered. Institutional accounts showed up with real money at $150 a share, $15 above the IPO price, and kept buying.

Consumers Are Feeling Better

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 48.9 in early June, beating the 46.0 expectation and marking a 9.2% increase from May. Gasoline prices have fallen roughly 40 cents per gallon over the past month according to AAA. Lower-income households showed some of the largest improvement in outlook.

One-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.6%, slightly below May. Five-year expectations eased to 3.4%. Consumers are not celebrating. But they are less pessimistic than they were a month ago and falling gasoline prices are the reason. If the Iran deal holds and crude oil stays near $84, that improvement has room to continue.

What to Watch

SpaceX priced at $135, opened at $150, and is running 26% higher by midday. The IPO overhang that pressured chip stocks for the past week is lifting. The Iran deal text is reportedly finalized with a potential signing in Switzerland on Sunday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil near $84 is taking inflation pressure off.

Consumer sentiment beat expectations on the back of lower gasoline prices. The Fed meets June 16-17 under new Chair Kevin Warsh. No rate change expected but the signal matters more than the decision.

The way I see it, the S&P 500 is sitting inside the 7429.38 to 7474.57 retracement zone. Above 7474.57, buyers take a run at the 7620.90 record high. Below 7429.38, the sellers step in and the 50-day moving average at 7247.78 becomes the target.

The Nasdaq-100 has resistance at 26085.30 to 26346.05. Above 26346.05 launches a move toward 27190.21. Below 26085.30 reopens the downside toward 25211.22.

The Dow is trading on the strong side of 50781.48 to 50989.84. Above 50989.84, the record high at 51657.89 is in play. Friday has the best combination of catalysts the market has seen all week. The close decides whether the week ends on strength or gives it back.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.