EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Forecasts – US Dollar Settling into the Weekend

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has fallen a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Friday, but really at this point in time, this looks very much like a market that is trying to figure out what to do with a bigger move. The 200-day EMA above offers resistance, but keep in mind, it does make a certain amount of sense that the interest rates climbing in America is putting a little bit of downward pressure on the euro. That being said, I think there are so many people out there concerned about what may or may not happen over the next couple of days for the weekend that it’s not a real stretch to think that we may just drift into the weekend.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound fell a bit, but it looks like the 200-day EMA is offering support. If you’ve been watching here for a while, you know that the British Pound is a currency that has held up quite well against the US dollar, even when others are falling apart. This is a market that I think probably is going to hang around the 1.3400 level for the rest of the day, maybe fluctuating in a 30 pip range, maybe 50 pip range. So, if you’re a short-term scalper, this might be a place to live today, barring any random announcements coming out of the Middle East. Obviously.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar has rallied just a bit against the Japanese yen, but really, at this point in time I think we’re going to be very cautious heading into the weekend. There is going to be a lot of fear that maybe the Japanese will intervene. I think, given enough time, though, we probably do break out to a fresh new high, which would be the demolishing of a 1990 swing high, so that really could get this thing moving.

In fact, the measured move of the rounded bottom is for $224, so we’re talking multi-year. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, but I still assume it will eventually. If we break down from here, I’ll be looking at the 50-day EMA as a potential area of support as well. I have no interest in shorting the dollar against the yen, and I do plan on continuing to keep holding onto the position in a long trade so that I can click swap at the end of every day.

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