Telegram’s GRAM Token Teases 40% Rally Despite Pavel Durov Warrant

Telegram’s GRAM token, formerly known as Toncoin, is painting a technical structure similar to the one that preceded its explosive April 2026 breakout, raising the possibility of a rebound toward $2.

That is despite fresh legal pressure surrounding Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

GRAM Falling Wedge Resembles April Breakout

GRAM was trading near $1.42 on July 29, down almost 3% on the day and roughly 50% below its May peak near $2.75.

The token has been declining between two descending, converging trendlines since May, forming what appears to be a falling wedge.

The pattern can signal weakening bearish momentum, but it confirms only after price breaks above the upper trendline. Should it happen, the GRAM token price may rally toward $2 in the coming weeks, amounting to over 40% gains.

GRAM’s daily relative strength index (RSI) was around 38, just above the oversold threshold of 30. That indicated odds of an interim dip toward the wedge’s apex point near the $1.30 level despite the broader upside outlook.

The setup resembles the falling wedge that formed between October 2025 and April 2026.

GRAM broke above that earlier wedge near $1.30–$1.35 with rising volume, reclaimed its major exponential moving averages and subsequently rallied toward $2.70–$2.80.

The current fractal remains unconfirmed. GRAM must hold the $1.30–$1.38 region and break above wedge resistance near $1.48–$1.52.

A further move above the 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs between approximately $1.58 and $1.65 could expose $1.78–$1.82, followed by the chart’s $2.03 target. That would represent an approximately 43% rebound from current levels.

A daily close below $1.30 would weaken the bullish comparison and expose $1.20–$1.25.

Pavel Durov News Adds Pressure

GRAM’s latest decline followed reports that Russian authorities charged Pavel Durov with allegedly facilitating terrorism and issued an international arrest warrant against the Telegram founder.

The market has historically treated legal action against Durov as a risk to the broader Telegram and TON ecosystem. Toncoin fell sharply following Durov’s arrest in France in August 2024.

The current reaction has been smaller, but it has pushed GRAM closer to the same type of falling-wedge support that preceded April’s breakout.

For now, the Durov-related sell-off may be helping complete the bullish fractal. However, GRAM still needs to reclaim $1.50–$1.65 with stronger volume before the projected move toward $2.03 gains confirmation.