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David Becker

Grain prices are higher early North American trade on Wednesday, led by a breakout in corn with wheat prices surging more than 1%. NOPA reported a record crush and huge inventories of soybean oil which weighed on the soybean complex.

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Corn Prices

Corn prices surged more than 3.6% in early North American trade. Prices broke out above the 3.99 highs and are poised to test target resistance near the June 2016 highs at 4.39.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.96.  Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).


Soybean Prices

Soybean prices edged in early North American trade but was unable to pierce through resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1015. On Tuesday NOPA released crush data, that showed that the April crush surpassed analyst estimates and became the largest monthly crush for any preceding April on record.  161.016 million bushels were crushed vs analyst estimates of 160.97 million. Crushing activity was down 6.31% from March but up 15.73% compared to April of 2017.

Soybean oil stocks were exceeded analyst expectations. Analysts had a median forecast for stocks to come in at 1.980 billion pounds.  Estimates were up 1.8% from the 1.946 billion pounds at the end of March.  Support on soybeans is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 995. Negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with an upward sloping trajectory which points to consolidation.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved higher in early trade in North America. Prices recaptured support near the 50-day moving average at 493. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 4.82. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 5.08. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

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