Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Updated: Aug 11, 2015, 11:35 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil dipped 55 cents giving back most of Monday’s gains to trade at 44.42 while Brent Oil fell 54 cents to 50.48. OPEC

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 - Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped 55 cents giving back most of Monday’s gains to trade at 44.42 while Brent Oil fell 54 cents to 50.48. OPEC pumped the most crude oil last month in more than three years as Iran restored output to the highest level since international sanctions were strengthened in 2012.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of world oil supplies, raised output by 100,700 barrels a day to 31.5 million last month, the group said in its monthly market report, citing external sources. This increase came even as Saudi Arabia, which often curbs output toward the end of peak summer demand, told OPEC it cut production by the most in almost a year.

Oil prices slumped to a six-month low below $50 a barrel in London last week as rising OPEC supplies, resilient U.S. production and concerns over Chinese demand prolong a global glut. Iran reached an accord with world powers on July 14 that may ease sanctions on its oil exports later this year in return for curbing nuclear activity.

The report also includes data directly submitted by its 12 members. In these figures, Saudi Arabia said it reduced output in July by 202,700 barrels a day to 10.36 million. That’s the biggest reduction since August 2014. A group total was unavailable for these statistics because Libya didn’t provide a production estimate.

OPEC increased estimates for global oil demand in 2016 by about 100,000 a barrels a day. World consumption will climb by 1.3 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent, to 94 million barrels a day in 2016. The growth rate is slightly lower than this year’s projected 1.5 percent expansion.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
CNY	New Loans	1,480.0B	725.0B	1,280.0B
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	65.7	64.3	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	25.0	32.0	29.7
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	47.6	43.9	42.7

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B