Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 21, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to tumble dropping 61 cents to trade at 40.66 while Brent Oil fell a bit harder to 46.48 down by 68 cents.  Nymex crude lost 4.3% in the last trading session, settling at the lowest in since March 02, 2009. Brent crude lost 3.4% in the last session and has been down for four of the past five sessions.

U.S. oil prices in particular are under pressure after a surprise 2.6 million-barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude stocks last week on the back of higher imports on the Gulf Coast.

“Demand for crude will soon fall nationally from current levels in September with the onset of seasonal refinery maintenance, leading to further builds [in stockpiles],” BNP Paribas said in a report. “That crude stocks have built at a time when refinery runs are still high will impact price sentiment.”

Citi Futures also noted that latest figures from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative show Saudi Arabian oil exports rising by 430,000 barrels a day to 7.37 million barrels a day after oil production touched 10.564 million barrels a day in June, serving as a reminder of the global oil surplus.

Investors also remain jittery over uncertainty about the Chinese equity market, fluctuations in the yuan, and the outlook for the country’s economic growth in general.

“For the oil markets, the focus remains on China, which set off a wave of emerging-market currency weakness when it de-pegged the yuan from the U.S. dollar last week,” Société Générale said. It said markets will be tracking the eurozone, U.S., and Chinese flash PMI data on Friday very closely.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, August 21, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 20 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Aug 20 11:30 UK Auctions 4.25% 2036 Gilt

Aug 21 17:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 Aug