Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 23, 2015 – Forecast

Crude Oil fell 20 points to trade at 41.53 while Brent Oil added 6 cents to 44.24.  Futures are down 1.4 percent this week after falling below $40 a barrel Wednesday for the first time since August. Crude inventories expanded for an eighth week, the longest stretch of increases since April, government data showed Wednesday. That’s sustaining supplies in the world’s biggest oil consumer more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average level.

Crude has slumped about 47 percent the past year amid speculation a surplus will persist as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump above its quota. Saudi Arabia is working with producers inside and outside the 12-member group to stabilize the market, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in Bahrain. Prices will rise as supply and demand start to rebalance next year, according to Matar al-Neyadi, the energy undersecretary for the United Arab Emirates.

The U.S. and Iraq, whose extra crude this year equates to about 80 percent of the global surplus, will fail to boost output in 2016, according to the world’s biggest forecasters. While the U.S. curtailment is mainly because prices are too low to spur fresh supply, the Middle East country’s ability to boost output is also being crimped by a need to fund its battle with Islamic State.

Slowing output in the two fastest-growing producers signals the global glut, which has depressed oil prices to near $40 a barrel, may begin to dissipate next year, according to Barclays Plc. While that would start to fulfill Saudi Arabia’s plan to re-balance world crude markets, Iraq’s struggles show that producers in OPEC are also suffering as that strategy takes effect.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, November 23, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus