Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil bounced around today with little direction to trade at 82.39 down by 10 cents while Brent Oil added 15 cents to
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil bounced around today with little direction to trade at 82.39 down by 10 cents while Brent Oil added 15 cents to reach 86.37 as the spread widened to the $4 safety range. Oil prices slipped Wednesday after enjoying a recent upturn in line with a global equities rebound, while analysts said investors will now be keeping an eye on the US Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting.
However, oversupply and lingering concerns about demand in key markets are capping gains and keeping prices at multi-year lows. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that the ministry believes oil prices will rebound to between $90 per barrel to $110 per barrel in the medium-term and long-term, Interfax reported Wednesday.
Oil is currently trading at around $86 per barrel making the dent to the already flagging Russian economy which relies heavily on revenues from oil and gas. Oil prices should begin trading within the $90 per barrel-$110 per barrel range again, which is “optimal” for both producers and consumers, in the medium-term and long-term, he said speaking at an oil and gas forum in Moscow.
What’s driving crude prices lower is slowing demand in the face of growing U.S. tight oil production and the return of 500 mb/d of Libyan crude oil to global markets since July. Markets have known and discounted tight oil production from the U.S., which will add roughly a million barrels a day of crude oil production this year and next, but the resumption of Libyan exports has hit the market just as the International Energy Agency has been lowering oil demand forecasts for 2014 and 2015. The result is a fear of oversupply, leading to lower prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
Exports (YoY) (Sep) |
6.9% |
6.8% |
-1.3% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Trade Balance (Sep) |
-958B |
-777B |
-949B |
|
|
|
AUD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q3) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
AUD |
CPI (YoY) (Q3) |
2.3% |
2.3% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
GBP |
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
CAD |
BoC Monetary Policy |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
1.00% |
1.00% |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens |
|
|
|
|
|
|
NZD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q2) |
|
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
|
50.2 |
50.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Mfg PMI |
|
49.5 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
|
55.0 |
55.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
|
49.9 |
50.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI (Sep) |
|
52.0 |
52.4 |
|
|
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage |
|
41.5K |
41.6K |
|
|
|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends |
|
-4 |
-4 |
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
282K |
264K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29
Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction
Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30
Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions
Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction
Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction
Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction
Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction
Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction