Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis September 8, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 46 cents to trade at 94.91 while Brent Oil added 49 cents to reach 102.32. The ECB’s surprisingly strong easing move had only a small impact on commodity markets yesterday. As for oil market reaction, the move had rather negative impact on Brent price via strengthening US dollar as markets have lately focused rather on negative demand risks because current supply situation is generally being perceived as comfortable. And yesterday’s ECB move will most likely have no impact on overall oil demand over the short-term.

Regarding traders medium-term view, the geopolitical risks, on the one hand, and the increase in oil production on the other continue to have a primary effect on the development of oil prices. The former factor currently consists of the armed clashes in Iraq, Libya, Israel and Ukraine. The latter factor is primarily illustrated by the persisting rise in oil production of the United States (‘shale’ oil). Although the latter factor should prevail over the former in the medium term and progressively drive the price of oil downwards, the former factor is likely to continue to prevent a decline in oil prices significantly below US$100 per barrel in the months to come, even though the latter factor is likely already significantly reducing the impacts of Middle East events on the price of oil. The main risk in terms of supply continues to be the uncertain situation in the Middle East and adjacent territories, while further economic developments in China pose a negative risk in terms of demand.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 08 09:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 6M Bubill (Mar 2015) auction

Sep 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Sep 11

Sep 09 06:00 Swiss Announces details of bond auction on Sep 10

Sep 09 08:00 Holland Eur 1.5-2.5bn Jul 2024 DSL auction

Sep 09 09:15 Austria RAGB auction

Sep 09 09:30 UK 0.25% 2052 Gilt Linker auction

Sep 09 17:00 US 3Y Note auction

Sep 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

Sep 10 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn new Aug 2024 Bund auction

Sep 10 09:30 Swiss Bond auction

Sep 10 17:00 US 10Y Note auction