The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for PPI, Bank Earnings, and Fed Talk Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are slightly lower ahead of Wednesday’s session. Dow futures are down 0.19%, S&P 500 futures off 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are weaker by 0.24%.

Traders are positioned cautiously as bank earnings and wholesale inflation data approach, with broader sentiment muted following Tuesday’s inflation print.

In the prior session, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow dropped over 400 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% to notch another record close, buoyed by Nvidia (+4%) on hopes of resuming AI chip sales to China.

A modest rise in June CPI (+0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) aligned with expectations but reignited concerns over tariff-driven inflation tied to new Trump-era import duties.

Key Economic Releases

• 08:00 GMT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
• 12:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m: +0.2% expected vs. +0.1% prior
• 12:30 GMT – PPI m/m: +0.2% expected vs. +0.1% prior
• 13:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization: 77.4% expected (unchanged)
• 13:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m: +0.1% expected vs. -0.2% prior
• 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Barr Speaks
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories: -1.8M expected vs. +7.1M prior
• 18:00 GMT – Beige Book
• 22:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams Speaks

Notable Earnings

Before the open:

• ASML (ASML) – $6.06 est.
• Bank of America (BAC) – $0.87 est.
• Goldman Sachs (GS) – $9.62 est.
• Morgan Stanley (MS) – $1.97 est.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – $2.68 est.
• PNC (PNC) – $3.55 est.
• Prologis (PLD) – $1.42 est.
• Progressive (PGR) – $4.34 est.

After the close:

• United Airlines (UAL) – $3.85 est.
• Alcoa (AA) – $0.33 est.
• SL Green Realty (SLG) – $1.40 est.
• AAR (AIR) – $1.00 est.
• First Industrial Realty (FR) – $0.73 est.
• Home Bancshares (HOMB) – $0.57 est.
• Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) – $0.58 est.
• Synovus (SNV) – $1.25 est.
• Triumph Financial (TFIN) – $0.07 est.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 futures last traded at 6,280.00. Resistance is at 6,335.50. Support levels are 6,259.75, 6,246.25, followed by the 50-day MA at 6,059.40 and the 200-day MA at 5,994.78.

Nasdaq 100 futures last traded at 23,012.25. Resistance stands at 23,222.75. Support is at 22,779.75, with the 50-day MA at 21,964.20 and 200-day MA at 21,330.67.

Dow futures last traded at 44,265. Resistance is at 45,043 and 45,177. Support is the 200-day MA at 43,555 and 50-day MA at 43,155.50.

Outlook

Wednesday’s session is driven by the June PPI print and major financial earnings. A hotter PPI reading could weigh on equities amid tariff-related inflation concerns, while strong bank results may offer offsetting support. Expect choppy trade near highs with headline risk elevated from central bank speakers and the Beige Book release.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.