Silver 2026 Forecast: Breakout Momentum Faces First Major Test

2025 Performance and Breakout Confirmation

Silver posted one of its strongest years on record in 2025, advancing as much as $35.77—or 123.8%—to a December peak of $64.67. From the June breakout of a nine-month range the metal gained up to 85.5%. The early-October trigger above the 2011 high at $49.81 to new record highs solidified the long-term breakout, which has only recently broken out. Precious metals dominated sector rankings in 2025, with silver, gold, and mining shares leaving other groups far behind.

The monthly chart tells a story of persistent buying pressure: seven consecutive months of higher highs and higher lows, a pattern that reflects conviction rarely seen in extended trends. The initial post-breakout pullback found solid footing near the 10-week average and a modest 50% retracement—not too far below the $49.81 breakout level—before buyers drove price to fresh trend highs above $54.49. This decisive follow-through remains a pattern of healthy bull moves.

Momentum Signals and Resistance Ahead

The latest leg higher has been sharp, lifting silver into potentially overextended territory. While the weekly RSI shows no clear bearish divergence yet, overbought readings approach levels last seen in August 2020. Daily charts hint at emerging divergence, though confirmation is pending.

Price now approaches a meaningful resistance cluster from $65.53 to $65.98, defined by a 223.6% extension of the most recent correction, a 141.4% extension of the decline from the 2011 peak, and a 261.8% projection within a long-term rising ABCD pattern. The upper boundary of a rising trend channel currently slices through this zone, adding confluence. A clean breakout above $65.98 would signal clearance for further gains; until then, this area invites caution and potential reversal attempts. The next higher key target zone above there looks to start around $72.35.

Support Structure and Pullback Scenarios

Should profit-taking emerge, the short-term bull trend offers layered support. Immediate attention falls on the December higher monthly low at $56.19—breaching this would mark the first meaningful trend weakening in months and open deeper retracement risk. Next in line sits the 10-week moving average, currently rising through $52.52, followed by the prior peak and long-term breakout level near $49.81.

A drop below the 10-week average points to the 20-week average at $46.87 currently, followed by the most recent higher swing low at $45.55. However, if that swing low is approached it seems likely to fail. As long as price holds above these zones, the path of least resistance favors buyers regaining control after any digestion phase.

Monthly closing dynamics add nuance: a December finish above the range midpoint (currently $60.43) would maintain stronger positioning, especially after five of the past seven months fell minimally into the previous month’s range before rallying—a classic sign of underlying demand absorbing dips.

Fundamental Drivers into 2026

Fundamentals align constructively with the technical picture heading into the new year. The Silver Institute and major analysts project another structural market deficit in 2026—the sixth consecutive year—driven by near-record industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and emerging AI infrastructure, even as thrifting efforts modestly curb per-unit usage.

Mine supply remains constrained, largely as a byproduct of other metals, limiting responsive growth and keeping physical inventories tight. Institutional consensus, including forecasts from Bank of America and Metals Focus, points to average prices in the $55–$65 range for 2026, with upside potential toward $70+ should investment flows accelerate alongside persistent deficits.

Summary

In summary, silver enters 2026 riding exceptional 2025 momentum within a confirmed multi-year bull framework. Near-term overextension and approaching resistance favor some consolidation or pullback early in the year, but layered support and robust fundamentals suggest any weakness should attract buyers aiming for eventual clearance of the $65–$66 zone.