Crude Oil Forecast August 10, 2015, Technical Analysis
Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market fell again on Friday as we continue to grind much lower. Ultimately, the market should continue to drop towards the $42 level, which was the scene of the major reversal previously. However, we could get rallies from time to time, but that should simply be selling opportunities as this market continues to struggle. The US dollar continues to find strength in general, and that of course works against the value of crude oil markets as well as other commodity markets. We believe that the $47 level will continue to be massively resistive. With that, we remain very bearish of this market, and have no interest whatsoever in buying. As we say in all petroleum markets right now, we need to see some type of supportive candle in a long-term charts such as a monthly chart in order to start thinking about buying at this point in time.
The Brent markets fell significantly during the session on Friday as well, as we initially tried to rally, but found the $50 level to be far too resistive to continue. With that, we broke down below the $49 handle, as we should continue to go even lower. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market even if we break above the $50 level, because we see such significant resistance all the way to the $55 handle. The US dollar continues to work against the value of the Brent market, as well as all other commodities. There simply is not enough demand for crude oil at the moment to elevate the Brent market, and as a result the downward pressure makes complete sense to us.
The only thing that keeps us from selling drastically right away is the fact that we should eventually get some type of bounce as the market has been sold off so drastically lately. However, we look at that as value in the US dollar, and we have no interest whatsoever in trying to go against this massively bearish trend that we’ve seen over the last several months.