Crude Oil Forecast August 2, 2017, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market fell significantly during the day on Tuesday, as we had gotten a bit overbought. By breaking down the way we have, it’s likely that the markets are trying different run the announcement today. Crude oil inventory announcements tend to be very volatile, and I believe at this point that the market is trying to explode to the upside. If we can break down below the $49 level, it’s likely that we will continue to go lower. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see volatility, but I believe that breaking below the one-hour trend line is a negative sign. Given enough time, the market should reach towards the $47.50 level, but that may take some time. Alternately, if we get some type of bullish inventory number, that could turn things right back around. Longer-term, I remain bearish of the oil markets.

Oil Forecast Video 02.8.17

Brent

Brent markets behave similarly, breaking below the trendline, and reaching towards the $51.50 level. A slide below there should send the market to the $51 level underneath, and then possibly the $50 level. Selling short-term rallies is how I am approaching this market, but I also recognize that the inventory number could change everything immediately. The $50 level underneath could be a target, especially if the downside starts to accelerate. Ultimately, I believe that if we break above the uptrend line on the hourly chart, then the market will probably go looking towards the $52.90 level, and then even higher than that. Ultimately, this is a market that will remain volatile, but I do believe that the market is probably going to continue to be negative over the longer term. The $50 level underneath should be massively supportive, and makes for a nice target.