Crude Oil Forecast November 18, 2015, Technical Analysis
Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market fell during the session on Tuesday, as we continue to bounce around between the $42 level on the top, and the $40 level on the bottom. The $40 level on the bottom is massively supportive, but we think we will eventually break down below there. We have the Crude Oil Inventories number coming out during the session today, and that of course can move the markets drastically as it gives us an idea of the supply and demand picture when it comes to crude oil. If we break down below the $40 level, we feel the market should then go down to the $38 level, and with that we would be testing the bottom of the previous move. Rallies at this point in time should continue to offer selling opportunities, even if we do break above the $42 level. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market under any circumstances at the moment.
The Brent market fell significantly during the course of the session on Tuesday, testing the $43.50 level. With this, it more than likely means that we will eventually break down, and reach towards the $40 level. While we have Crude Oil Inventories coming out of America today, and although it doesn’t necessarily show the inventory on branch, the reality is that shows whether or not there is any demand for crude oil overall. With this, it’s likely that the market will react drastically to that number anyway. We believe that the market should break down and even if we get some type of rally at this point in time, we believe that the markets are one that you can only sell. We would look for resistive candles above as opportunities to take advantage of what is an obvious major downtrend, and at this point in time don’t really have a scenario in which we are willing to buy Brent. Any buying opportunity would have to present itself on longer-term charts, and right now it just does not look like we have a bottom at this point.