Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breakdown Deepens as Key Support Fails

Crude oil remains under sustained selling pressure following Wednesday’s decisive break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a key support within the current corrective structure. As of Thursday, crude is trading near the low of the day at $64.16, placing it on track for what may become a nine-week daily closing low – an indication of growing downside momentum. A close near current levels would confirm a clear short-term trend shift and reinforce the bearish tone established earlier in the week.

Bearish Weekly Structure Signals Further Downside Risk

The 61.8% Fibonacci level at $64.46 had been acting as initial support in recent sessions, but the breakdown now confirms a failure of that level. It follows a prior violation of long-term support and further deteriorates the technical structure. With one trading day left in the week, crude oil is poised to complete a large weekly red bearish candle. A close near the week’s low would reflect persistent weakness and increase the likelihood of additional selling pressure into next week.

The significance of a strong bearish weekly close lies in the momentum shift it represents. Lower weekly closes after failed support typically indicate that buyers are stepping aside, allowing sellers to control the short-term direction.

Confluence Zone Near $60 Offers Next Key Support

Looking lower, the next potential support area sits around the confluence of two key levels: the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $60.66 and a 78.6% projection of a falling ABCD pattern at $60.78. Together, these levels form a structurally significant zone, where a pause or reaction could emerge. Until that zone is tested—or unless a bullish reversal takes shape before the – momentum remains aligned with the downside.

Former Support Turns Resistance at AVWAP Test

Adding to the bearish evidence, Thursday’s high of $65.58 marks a rejection from an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) level that had previously served as support. This shift from support to resistance reinforces the idea that the broader structure has weakened. For sentiment to shift, crude would need to rally above that high and close decisively through it. So far, no such reversal has emerged, leaving the near-term outlook firmly bearish.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.