Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bull Flag Failure Drops Below $58.94 Fib

Wednesday’s Breakdown

The small bull flag trigger from Tuesday failed decisively Wednesday, driving crude oil to a fresh pullback low beneath the prior $59.04 swing and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $58.94. Both the 20-day and 10-day averages were sliced to the downside, with the daily close confirming the breakdown below $59.04.

Thursday’s Narrow Continuation

Downward pressure persisted Thursday, yet sellers managed only a modest new low of $58.24 within a tight range—signaling fading momentum. A lower high and lower low solidified bearish control, with the failed Fibonacci level now targeting the 78.6% retracement at $57.83.

Primary Overhead Resistance

Recent rally attempts stalled at the falling 50-day average, currently $61.46 and nearing convergence with the major downtrend line from the June peak. This cluster defines critical near-term resistance and underscores the inability to reverse the dominant bearish trend.

October Rally Context

The sharp October 22 breakout from a small falling channel—initially off the $56.41 trend low—has lost all follow-through. Neither the 50-day average nor the downtrend line has been reclaimed, keeping the broader decline intact since the June high.

Next Support Zone

The 78.6% retracement at $57.83 will reveal demand strength, but the failed bull flag places this level at risk. October’s $56.41 low completed an 88.6% retracement and anchors a large potential support band with April and May double bottoms at $55.81 and $55.23.

Double Bottom Potential

The prior decline into the April-May double bottom suggests the current move could mirror that structure, generating a second low near $56.41. The aggressive October rally demonstrated buyer conviction; a similar surge remains possible once firm support is established.

Outlook

Sellers dominate until concrete support emerges. The 78.6% zone at $57.83 is the immediate test; failure opens $56.41 and the $55.23–$55.81 band. Only a rally reclaim of the 50-day average and downtrend line would shift control back to buyers to a degree that may be sustainable. Until then, risk skews toward a new trend low.

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