The crude oil markets fell during the trading session again on Monday, and although a lot of the headlines are focusing on the May contract, the reality is we are rolling over to the June contract so that is the market I am paying attention to for the purpose of this analysis.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has fallen during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, which of course isn’t a huge surprise considering that there is a serious lack of demand out there. While the media is going on and on about the May contract price, the reality is that there are a lot of technical factors with that contract, not the least of which is that we are closing at out and rolling over to June. Because of this, I will focus on this contract and it looks to me as if the $27.50 level is going to continue to offer a bit of resistance. At this point, I am fading short-term rallies and aiming towards the $20 level with the $30 level above being the ceiling. Fading rallies should continue to work.
Brent continues to reach towards the $25 level, an area that has been important more than once. Ultimately, this is a market that has a lot of negativity involved in it, because quite frankly we are running out of places to store crude oil and of course demand is almost nothing at this point considering that the economies around the world continue to see a lot of demand destruction and of course locking down. At this point, the crude oil market will continue to struggle quite drastically, as the oversupply issue is something that is going to take a significant amount of time to work through. I believe the $35 level is the “ceiling”, just as the $25 level is a “floor.”
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.