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Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil rolls over

By:
Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jul 17, 2018, 04:49 UTC

Crude oil markets roll over during the trading session on Monday, breaking through the support that we had seen recently. With the Saudis agreeing to provide more supply to the market and the United States possibly opening up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, we are starting to see significant pressure in these markets.

Crude Oil daily chart, July 17, 2018

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market broke down a bit during the day on Monday as the Saudi Arabia government agreed to provide more crude oil to the markets, driving up the amount of supply available. Between that and a strengthening US dollar, the bearish pressure was too much and we rolled over, breaking below the $70 level rather handily. I believe that the market will probably go looking towards the $68 level next, where there was significant demand previously. Rallies at this point will probably be a nice selling opportunity.

Brent

Brent markets look even worse, as we have started to slice through a significant uptrend line. At this point, I think that if we break down below the $72.50 level, the market will probably reach down to the $70 level longer-term. Short-term rallies are probably going to be sold off, with the $75 level above being significant resistance. I believe that the market is especially sensitive to Saudi oil coming online, and therefore I think we will continue to see sellers after what has been a significant break down. As I record this, we are down roughly 2.33% for the day, and it’s still early.

Rallies at this point are not to be trusted, at least not until we break above the $75 level on a daily close, something that doesn’t look likely in the short term. Expect volatility, but I would expect more negativity than anything else.

Crude Oil Video 17.07.18

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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