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Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Stays Within The Range

By:
Christopher Lewis
Published: Jan 4, 2024, 14:17 GMT+00:00

Crude oil markets initially tried to take off to the upside on Thursday, but it appears that the resistance overhead continues to be a major problem.

Crude oil rigs, FX Empire

In this article:

Crude Oil Prices Forecast Video for 05-01-2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

You can see that the WTI crude oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session here on Thursday but has given back some of the gains. This does make a certain amount of sense because we have to worry about the jobs number. And of course, we are getting close to the top of the overall consolidation area that I think we’re starting to carve out. That being said it’s still early in the year so I think you need to be very cautious about throwing a ton of money at the market.

The $75 level above will be a major barrier to overcome. And the fact that it is being backed by the 50 day EMA certainly causes even more concern for buyers. Underneath the $68 level continues to be a major support level on longer term charts. So, I just don’t see how we slice through there easily. More likely than not, we’re just going to continue to bounce around in this same region and therefore I’m fairly neutral on this market, but I do recognize that when you get to the outer ranges, it does set up a potential trade.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets did very much the same. The $80.50 level seems to be a significant resistance barrier. The 50-day EMA is right around the $80 level. So, in that general vicinity, I would expect a lot of resistance, while underneath the $72 level is significant support, not only from recent trading, but from long-term trading. Because of this, I think, much like the WTI market, we are just grinding back and forth and trying to sort out where we are going longer term. In other words, Dow theorists would probably refer to this as a potential accumulation phase because I do think that eventually we probably go higher, especially if central banks around the world are going to start flooding the markets with cheap money again, which it looks like they may do that.

All things being equal, I think this is a market that is trying to form boundaries that you should be paying close attention to as it could lead to a lot of short-term range bound trading opportunities.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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