Crude Oil Price Update – Needs to Hold $68.46 to Fuel Upside Breakout Through $68.86

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher early Friday, shortly before the regular session opening. The strength is being fueled by signs that U.S. sanctions on Iran are already reducing the global crude supply.

At 1110 GMT, October WTI crude oil is trading $68.64, up $0.81 or +1.19%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It turned up earlier in the week when buyers took out the previous top at $67.72. The actual momentum driving the rally started on August 16 with the easing of tensions in Turkey and the closing price reversal bottom at $63.89.

A trade through $68.86 and $69.19 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The main range is $71.29 to $63.89. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $68.46 to $67.59. This move supports the upside bias. The retracement zone levels are new support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the October WTI crude oil futures contract today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $68.46.

A sustained move over $68.46 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create the momentum needed to challenge a downtrending Gann angle at $68.85, and the main tops at $68.86 and $69.19. A breakout over $69.19 could trigger a surge into a downtrending Gann angle at $70.07. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $71.05 and $71.29 main tops.

A sustained move under $68.46 will signal the presence of sellers. If the selling pressure increases then look for a possible break into the main 50% level at $67.59, followed closely by a steep uptrending Gann angle at $66.89.