Crude Oil Price Update – Second Inside Move Indicates Trader Indecision, Impending Volatility

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are holding steady early Monday in limited trading. The market is being underpinned by concerns ahead of the start of U.S. sanctions against Iran’s crude exports. However, worries about increased U.S. production are helping to limit gains. Traders are basing this conclusion on another increase in the weekly U.S. rig count.

At 0405 GMT, December WTI crude oil is trading $69.49, up $0.21 or +0.30%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the main trend indicator chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since October 10. A trade through $68.53 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. A move through $67.74 will change the main trend to down with $66.50 the next target.

The main range is $66.50 to $76.72. Its retracement zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. Currently it is acting like resistance.

The short-term range is $76.72 to $68.53. If buyers can overtake $71.61 then look for a rally into its retracement zone at $72.63 to $73.59.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $70.40.

A sustained move under $70.40 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for sellers to go after $68.53. Taking out this level could drive the market into $67.74.

Overtaking $70.40 and sustaining the move will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration into the 50% level at $71.61.

Since the market is trading inside last Thursday’s $69.99 to $68.53 range for a second session, these prices may be the actual breakout levels today. So if you’re more aggressive then use these levels as trigger points.