Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil ended the week at 86.01 after breaking below 85.00 earlier in the day. The commodity had traded as high at

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 - 14, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil ended the week at 86.01 after breaking below 85.00 earlier in the day. The commodity had traded as high at 90.33 on Monday after positive PMI data in China helped increase future demand for oil but the world’s second largest consumer. After strong data from China markets were in positive mood. The geopolitical tensions had eased but not died out by mid week protests in Egypt had turned violent and deadly as Egyptians protest power grabs by President Morsi and the possibility of a pro Islamic constitution and government. Also Turkey asked NATO to supply missles to defend its borders and NATO agreed to install and man the Patriot Missile Systems as rumors were that President Assad was considering using chemical weapons, which received load protest from the US and threats of intervention.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 07, 2012	86.01	86.38	86.89	85.78	-0.43%
Dec 06, 2012	86.38	87.84	88.22	85.70	-1.66%
Dec 05, 2012	87.84	88.39	89.05	87.49	-0.62%
Dec 04, 2012	88.39	89.06	89.17	87.59	-0.76%
Dec 03, 2012	89.06	89.00	90.33	88.67	0.11%

On Wednesday the UK issued a downward revision to 2012 and 2013 GDP which was followed by a more severe revision by the ECB for the whole of the eurozone, and was again followed by Germany. Lower growth numbers pulled the bottom out from crude oil which tumbled on Thursday below 85.00 a positive jobs report in the US supporting US recovery helped give a bit back to oil on Friday late day. Crude is expected to remain weak. A lower inventory report on Wednesday saw little reaction by the markets who were more concerned with future supply and demand than just the present.

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Major Economic Events for the week actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 03	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.50	50.40	50.40
	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.7%	4.1%	5.4%
	CHF	SVME PMI	48.5	47.0	46.1
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.10	45.90	45.50
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.5	44.7	44.7
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	46.8	46.8	46.8
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.2	46.2	46.2
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	49.1	48.1	47.3
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.5	51.3	51.7
Dec. 04	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	74.30K	90.50K	128.20K
Dec. 05	GBP	Services PMI	50.2	51.1	50.6
	EUR	Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction	5.290%		5.517%
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-1.2%	-0.1%	-0.6%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	118K	125K	157K
	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.9%	2.7%	1.9%
	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	-1.9%	-0.9%	-0.1%
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.7	53.5	54.2
Dec. 06	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	1.0%	0.2%	-0.1%
	CHF	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	0.0%	0.1%
	GBP	Trade Balance	-9.5B	-8.8B	-8.4B
	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	3.9%	0.9%	-2.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	380K	395K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3205K	3275K	3305K
Dec. 07	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.8%	0.7%	-2.1%
	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-3.0%	-0.6%	-3.2%
	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-2.6%	-0.5%	-1.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	146K	93K	138K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	147K	95K	189K
	MXN	Mexican CPI (YoY)	4.18%	4.34%	4.60%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	74.5	82.4	82.7
	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.1%		0.1%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
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Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 11	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-7%	-7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-12.0	-15.7
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-42.5B	-41.6B
Dec. 12	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.8%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	7.0K	10.1K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-2.5%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-147.5B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.1%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-16	-21
Dec. 14	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	45.0	44.5
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.2	46.8
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%