Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil ended the week at 86.88 having traded in a range between 85.35 to 87.68 overall it was range bound this week

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil ended the week at 86.88 having traded in a range between 85.35 to 87.68 overall it was range bound this week in a very tight range. OPEC ministers met this past week and decided to hold quotas, which remain high but agreed to review if production exceeds demand. Chinese data and expansion helped support upward movement but EIA inventories were higher than expected. Global growth outlooks remained negative. With the US dollar weak, oil should have seen more action as it was also supported with tensions growing in Egypt and Syria as the US and NATO agreed to send troops and missiles to defend Turkey’s borders.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	86.88	86.35	86.91	86.06	0.63%
Dec 13, 2012	86.33	86.71	86.96	85.83	-0.45%
Dec 12, 2012	86.72	85.83	87.68	85.72	1.03%
Dec 11, 2012	85.84	85.64	86.36	85.22	0.24%
Dec 10, 2012	85.64	86.12	86.78	85.35	-0.55%

Downward growth forecast ranging from the US to Germany including the UK and the entire eurozone for 2013 continues to be the largest factor effecting crude prices. Also the US fiscal cliff and possible recession hold down prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-9%	-7%	-7%
	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	6.9	-12.0	-15.7
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	7.6	0.1	-2.6
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
Dec. 12	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-3.0K	7.0K	6.0K
	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.4%	0.2%	-2.3%
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.1%
	CHF	Interest Rate Decision	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-12	-16	-21
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.6	45.0	44.5
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	46.3	47.2	46.8
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.3	46.6	46.2
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
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Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.5%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
Dec. 19	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.0	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	108.0	108.1
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	96.3	95.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	25	33
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
Dec. 20	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	-0.8%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.5%	0.6%
Dec. 21	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-14.0B	-20.8B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	1.0%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.1%	-0.1%