Crude Well Forecast October 24, 2014, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market rose during the course of the day on Thursday, using the $80.00 level as support. That any number itself isn’t a huge surprise, because after all it is about as big of a round number as you can get. On top of that, there has been support there lately so it makes sense that the buyers would step back in. That being said, we believe that the market will more than likely continue to bounce a little bit, but there is a significant amount of selling pressure near the $83.00 level that I can see. We believe that a resistant candle between there and the $85.00 level is in fact a nice selling opportunity. Because of that, we believe that the downside is probably going to continue to be what is favored, and as a result we are waiting for short-term rallies to turn things back around and start selling.

Brent

Brent markets had little bit more of a positive session on Thursday, as we slammed into the $87.00 level. However there is a bit of resistance just above so we are quite ready to start buying yet. If we do get above the $90 level though, we feel that this market could make an extended run up to the $97 level before it finds massive selling pressure. We still believe in the downtrend, but we do recognize that we need to either grind sideways, or get a bit of a bounce in order to attract more selling pressure.

By any metric you measure it, the market is most certainly oversold so we are not ready to start selling quite yet. Rallies of course offer nice selling opportunities but at the end of the day this downtrend is pretty long in the tooth, which of course means that we need to be very careful down here. If we did break down below the $83 level, we would more than likely find this market heading to the $80 level which is our longer-term target anyway.