Daily Grains Analysis for February 26, 2018

Grain prices continued to move higher as soybeans broke out leading the complex higher. This comes despite weaker than expected export says which disappointed traders.  Soybean export sales for the 2017/18 marketing year came in as a net reduction of 109.1 TMT, a marketing year low, and were down significantly from last week as well as the prior 4-week average.  Sales for the 2018/19 crop year totaled 222.1 TMT, lifting combined season sales to 113 TMT.  Combined sales were down 87% week over week but were within analyst estimates that ranged from 0 to 1,250 TMT. 2017/18 export commitments are 78% of the USDA forecast with 28 weeks to go and need to average 444 TMT weekly to meet projections. Current sales are 14% behind last year’s pace.

Corn Prices

Corn prices moved higher as hedge fund traders added to long positions and reduced short position in futures and options according to the latest commitment of traders report released for the date February 20, 2018.

Corn prices rebounded and recaptured resistance which is now support seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.667 per bushel. The first level of target resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.68 per bushel. Additional resistance is seen near the 2017 highs at 3.94. Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.

Soybean Prices

Soybean prices broke out and continue to surge higher and show upward early North American Trade.  Support on soybeans is seen near former resistance at the July highs near 1027.6. Resistance is seen near the February highs at 1063. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) recently generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved higher in early north American Trade. Short-term support is seen near the 10-day moving average 4.557. Resistance is seen near the February highs at  467. Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.