DAX Index Today: DAX Futures Down 250 Points as the US Jobs Report Looms

The Thursday Overview of the DAX Performance

The DAX advanced by 0.19% on Thursday. Following a 0.46% gain on Wednesday, the DAX ended the session at 18,403. The DAX saw a tenth daily gain from eleven sessions.

German Services Sector PMI Crosses 50

On Thursday, better-than-expected German and Eurozone Services PMI numbers drove demand for DAX-listed stocks.

The German Services PMI increased from 48.3 to 50.1 in March, up from a preliminary 49.8. Input and output price inflation rose at less marked rates, supporting investor bets on a June ECB rate cut.

Figures for the broader euro area also signaled an improvement in the macroeconomic environment. The Eurozone Services PMI increased from 50.2 to 51.5 in March, up from a preliminary 51.1.

US Economic Calendar: US Jobless Claims and Fed Speakers Send Mixed Signals

US labor market data supported investor bets on a June Fed rate cut. Initial jobless claims rose from 212k to 221k in the week ending March 30. Jobless claims reached their highest level since January 2024, signaling a softer labor market environment.

However, FOMC members limited the gains, with FOMC members Barkin, Goolsbee, and Kashkari impacting expectations of a June Fed rate cut.

FOMC member Thomas Barkin needed patience vis-à-vis interest rate cuts. Austan Goolsbee remained focused on elevated housing services price inflation. Neel Kashkari saw persistent inflation forcing the Fed into a holding pattern through 2024.

On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 ended the session down 1.40% and 1.23%, respectively. The Dow declined by 1.36%.

The Thursday Market Movers

Auto stocks were among the front-runners for the second session. BMW and Volkswagen advanced by 2.55% and 2.43%, respectively. Mercedes Benz Group and Porsche saw gains of 1.84% and 1.34%, respectively. UK car sales data, an improving macroeconomic environment in China, and hopes of the US avoiding a recession drove buyer demand for auto stocks.

Infineon Technologies extended its gains from Wednesday after the JPMorgan Chase upgrade, rising by 1.17%.

German Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales in Focus

On Friday. German factory orders will garner investor interest. Another slump in factory orders could test the buyer appetite for DAX-listed stocks. Economists forecast factory orders to increase by 0.8% in February after tumbling 11.3% in January.

Eurozone retail sales also need consideration. An unexpected spike in retail sales could test investor bets on a June ECB rate cut. Consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation.

However, economists forecast retail sales to fall by 0.4% in February, supporting sentiment toward ECB monetary policy.

While the economic indicators from the euro area need consideration, the US economic calendar will have more impact.

US Economic Calendar: The US Jobs Report and the Fed

The all-important US Jobs Report could impact investor expectations of a June Fed rate cut. Hotter-than-expected wage growth and nonfarm payrolls would influence the Fed rate path.

A higher-for-longer Fed rate path would impact buyer demand for DAX-listed stocks.

Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase by 4.1% year-on-year in March, down from 4.3% in February. Moreover, economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200k after a 275k advance in February.

With the US Jobs Report in focus, investors should also monitor FOMC member speeches. FOMC members Susan Collins, Thomas Barkin, and Michelle Bowman are on the calendar to speak. Reactions to the US Jobs Report and views on the timing of interest rate cuts could move the dial.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the DAX will hinge on the US Jobs Report and Fed speeches. A hotter-than-expected US Jobs Report could sink bets on a June Fed rate cut. FOMC member reaction to the US Jobs Report may further influence market risk sentiment.

In the futures markets, the DAX was down 258 points, while the Nasdaq Mini was up by 5 points. Geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary sent the DAX futures deep into the red.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

The DAX remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals.

A DAX return to the 18,500 handle would support a move to the April 2 all-time high of 18,567.

German factory orders, the US Jobs Report, and FOMC member commentary need investor consideration.

A break below the 18,200 handle could bring sub-18,000 levels into play.

The 14-day RSI at 72.85 shows the DAX in overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at the 18,500 handle.

4-Hourly Chart

The DAX hovered above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A DAX break above 18,500 would give the bulls a run at the all-time high of 18,567.

Conversely, a fall through the 18,250 handle would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A break below the 50-day EMA could bring sub-18,000 into play.

The 14-period 4-hour RSI at 61.02 suggests a DAX move to the all-time high of 18,567 before entering overbought territory.