Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil, Eyes on $70 Brent

Market Overview

WTI crude oil climbed above $67 per barrel on Friday, recouping recent losses amid escalating geopolitical tensions that reignited concerns about supply. Red Sea disruptions, following attacks on cargo vessels, pushed risk premiums higher across energy markets.

Simultaneously, the market is grappling with the deflationary implications of upcoming U.S. trade tariffs, which may dampen global economic activity and reduce fuel demand.

OPEC’s revised outlook projects 2026 global oil demand at 106.3 million barrels per day, down from last year’s estimate of 108 million barrels, citing slower consumption in Asia. Speculation around a pause in planned output hikes further supported crude, which is poised for its second weekly gain.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading near $3.371, breaking slightly above descending channel resistance and the 50-period EMA ($3.326), hinting at early bullish momentum. However, price is now confronting overhead resistance at $3.471, where the 200-period EMA ($3.518) and a key horizontal barrier converge.

A confirmed close above $3.471 would signal a breakout from the broader downtrend and could pave the way for $3.573 and $3.673. Conversely, failure to sustain above $3.348 risks a pullback toward $3.265 and $3.151, with $3.049 as deeper support.

Momentum has improved following the rebound from $3.151, and the price is now testing a key inflection zone.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is holding near $66.86 in early trading after finding support around $66.57, which aligns closely with the ascending channel’s lower trendline and the 200-period EMA. This level has cushioned recent declines triggered by a broader risk-off sentiment and renewed geopolitical friction. Price action remains within the rising channel structure, but momentum is weakening.

The 50-period EMA at $67.24 is acting as a near-term ceiling, and a break above it could push crude toward the $67.60 resistance, followed by the upper channel edge at $68.77.

Conversely, failure to hold above $66.57 may invite deeper retracement toward $65.55 and potentially $64.71 if bearish momentum accelerates.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $68.97, holding within a narrow rising channel after recovering from the recent low of $66.77. However, upside remains capped by the 200-period EMA at $70.30 and the key Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level at $69.97, which continues to act as strong resistance. Price has yet to reclaim the broader downtrend stemming from the $80.32 high.

A break above $70.00 would open the door toward $71.95 (38.2% Fib) and $73.54 (50% Fib), but failure to clear this barrier risks another pullback toward $68.49 and $66.77.

Both EMAs are sloping downward, and momentum appears subdued, suggesting traders remain cautious ahead of fresh OPEC+ signals and broader risk sentiment shifts. A confirmed close above $70 is needed for Price to validate a bullish breakout.