Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Today: Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Data Despite China Market Slump

Key Asian Market Movers: China Markets Slide on New Measures

Chinese policymakers consider measures to cool the Mainland stock markets, triggering a sell-off. According to CN Wire, financial regulators have grown increasingly concerned about the market rally. Policymakers are reportedly considering the removal of selected short-selling restrictions and policies to curb speculative trading.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 2.47% and 1.97%, respectively, in morning trading on Thursday, September 4. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.21%.

Concerns about policy adjustments overshadowed Beijing’s latest efforts to boost domestic consumption. On Wednesday, September 3, Beijing announced a program to subsidize consumer loans to drive consumer credit demand and household spending. Hong Kong and Mainland China equity markets typically respond positively to fresh stimulus.

Broader Asian Markets Rally on Fed Rate Cut Bets and Upbeat Economic Data

In contrast to the Mainland and Hong Kong equity markets, the broader Asian markets rallied. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.34% as USD/JPY rose 0.15% to 148.242. A weaker yen could counter the effects of US tariffs on demand, boost corporate earnings, and lift share prices.

The ASX 200 advanced 0.89% on upbeat economic data. Aussie household spending rose 5.1% year-on-year in July, up from 4.6% in June. Additionally, exports rose a further 3.3% month-on-month in July (June: 6.3%), widening the trade surplus to A$7.310 billion (June: A$5.366 billion).

Beyond the data, optimism over a September Fed rate cut fueled demand for risk assets, weighing on gold. Gold fell 0.83% to $3,530. Fed Reserve Governor Christopher Waller continued to call for a September Fed rate cut as the US economy cools. He also hinted at multiple rate cuts over the next three to six months.

US Stock Futures Advance Ahead of a Data-Packed US Session

Beyond Asia, US stock futures posted modest gains on Thursday, September 4. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini advanced 39 points, the S&P 500 E-mini gained 8 points, while the Dow Jones E-mini edged 3 points higher.

Overnight, the JOLTs job openings fell from 7.357 million in June to 7.181 million in July, signaling a cooling labor market. Later today, initial jobless claims, the ADP report, and the ISM Services PMI could affect the Fed rate path and risk appetite.

Outlook: Labor Market and Services in Focus

The ADP will report private sector employment trends for August. Economists expect employment to rise by 65k, down from 104k in July. Meanwhile, economists forecast initial jobless claims to increase from 229k (week ending August 23) to 230k (week ending August 30).

Weaker-than-expected numbers could fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts, lifting demand for risk assets. Conversely, a resilient labor market may signal a less dovish Fed policy stance, potentially weighing on sentiment.

While the labor market data will be key ahead of Friday’s crucial US Jobs Report, the ISM Services PMI will require consideration. Economists expect the Services PMI to rise from 50.1 in July to 51 in August. A sharper rise in the headline PMI, increasing employment, and higher prices could challenge optimism over a more dovish Fed policy stance.

Looking ahead, Friday’s Jobs Report will be crucial for the Fed and global equity markets.

Technical Levels to Watch

While the modest morning gains reflect investor caution, the broader short-term bias remains bullish. However, bullish momentum hinges on today’s data and Friday’s highly anticipated Jobs Report. For traders, here are the key levels that could determine market direction this week.

Dow Jones

• Resistance: August 22 high of 45,841, 46,000, then 46,500.
• Support: 45,000, then the 50-day EMA (44,564).

Nasdaq 100

• Resistance: August 18 high of 23,882, 24,000, then 24,500.
• Support: The 50-day EMA (23,116), and then 23,000.

S&P 500

• Resistance: August 28 high of 6,523 and then 6,750.
• Support: 6,400 and then the 50-day EMA (6,340).

With key US economic data ahead, traders face a pivotal end to the week that could decide whether September remains the market’s toughest month. Follow our live coverage and consult our economic calendar.