Dow Jones Stocks Outlook: Why Walmart and Home Depot Could Keep 2025’s Bull Run Alive

Let’s do a quick process-of-elimination exercise, which will help you understand why the charts of 2 of the 30 stocks in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) look particularly encouraging to me. I’ll name them below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: A Consumer Check-Up Through Two Key Stocks

For now, just gaze at this list of 30 blue chip companies with a specific purpose. When cobbled together by the Dow Jones committee in their quirky but effective price-weighting style, they represent a market basket that aims to represent the US economy. That’s been the case for more than 100 years, well before the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were even a twinkle in the eyes of the groups that created them.

Here’s the question: which of these stocks truly and at their core, represent US consumer buying behavior? I’ll help you out below the chart with my own whittling down of the list.

The Dow is a diverse group of stocks, more so than the other major indexes these days. But it’s fair to say that many of those financial stocks don’t necessarily strike at the heart of the consumer. The healthcare and staples stocks do, but they are not as ubiquitous. And their markets are quite competitive. And not everyone wears the same athletic shoes, drinks the same soft drinks or can afford to be a Prime member.

Why Walmart and Home Depot Matter More Than Ever

For my money, the two Dow stocks that are the weather vane for what consumers are doing with their hard-earned money are Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD). They represent 1.4% and 5.3% of the Dow index, so combined they won’t swing the whole market. But they might just be the last hope for those trying desperately to keep the bull run of 2025 alive.

Both stocks are doing just fine in the sentiment department. One indication is FX Empire’s data below, first on WMT, then on HD.

Valuation vs. Technicals: The Case for Chart-Watching

HD is the cheaper of the two on a trailing P/E Ratio basis. But neither is exactly on sale. But my angle here is not fundamentally driven.

It is technical. Because it is hard to find stocks that look other than mediocre or worse in this summer malaise period for the stock market. So, let’s show you the charts and you can decide if you see what I see.

Home Depot (HD) Price Action: Higher Highs in Sight

I just do not see many stocks attempting to move to higher highs, that have not already reached all-time highs in recent weeks. Big tech? Sure, they are there. But my version of “margin of safety” investing includes a chart that has some room to move. And soon. I see that in HD, both at the top 20 day moving average and now the 50 day starting to rise), and the bottom of the chart too (PPO just rising above zero level).

That was HD. Now, let’s conclude with WMT. This daily chart below is essentially similar to that of HD, but with a lower angle of ascent if you will. That’s likely better for risk management (smaller range) but perhaps less likely to really “pop.” But what I really like about this chart is a rare situation that we can see in the top pane. That 150 day moving average. It is about to be tested. If broken to the upside, and unlike a 20-day average breakout, this one has been percolating for much longer. WMT has been in a tight range for some time now. So the next move could be a decisive one.

Risk & Reward: What Could Derail the Rally?

I tend to think of investing as a range of possible outcomes. In the case of these two Dow stocks, I see a higher probability that the next move is up, versus down. Company-specific and market-wide events can change that at the stock level in a hurry. But so far, so good, as these stocks build their base…and their case.

It makes sense to me. WMT is where America shops, and HD is where it does too. But at a time when still, after the pandemic, home life is just that more important to people.

So it makes money trading stocks. Let’s see if these two do indeed turn out to be among the near-term upside leaders.