E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – July 3, 2017 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The rally started from the opening and is probably being driven by the stronger dollar and thin trading conditions ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. Fourth of July bank holiday.

Volume is expected to be below average today and could trade this way all week because of the absence of major players ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has shifted back to the upside because the Dow has crossed to the strong side of a pair of retracement zones.

A trade through 21451 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a breakout into the minor top at 21454 and the next main top at 21494.

Support is a Fib level at 21358, a 50% level at 21316, a 50% level at 21280 and a Fibonacci level at 21229.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 21380, the direction of the Dow today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib level at 21358.

Holding above 21358 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a move into 21451, 21454 then 21494.

A break back under 21358 will signal the return of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with targets at 21316, 21280 then 21229.

Basically, look for a bullish tone as long as the Dow remains above 21358. The major traders are on the sidelines so we could see increased volatility under low volume conditions. This means you have to avoid getting trapped buying strength or selling weakness aggressively.