Natural Weekly Price Analysis – Natural Gas Continues to Threaten $3

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has fallen during the week, which is not a huge surprise because we had a couple of major things happen this week. Number 1, we are starting to see temperatures become a bit milder in the United States, so of course, air conditioning demand will drop. But at the same time, it’s worth noting that the inventories showed a build this last week in the United States, so that’s more bearish pressure.

Technical Analysis and Support Levels

We find ourselves right above the $3 level, and it is worth watching to see whether or not the $3 level gets broken below. If it does, it could open up a move down to the $2.75 level, possibly even the $2.50 level. This may take some time, but I think it will happen sooner rather than later.

This is a time of year that’s typically very quiet, and I don’t think that is going to change anytime soon. Ultimately, this is a market that has a bit of a barrier above near the $3.35 level in the form of the 200-week EMA, and breaking above there could send the market much higher. This isn’t something I would expect, unless there is a heatwave in America, and even then, it’s a short-term influence.

Ultimately, though, I think you’ve got a situation where anytime this market rallies, you have to be looking for selling opportunities. It’s a market that has a high seasonality to it, and quite frankly, I think that is going to remain the case. I just don’t see why it would change quickly.

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