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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – March 12, 2018 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Mar 12, 2018, 15:22 UTC

Based on the early trade, the direction of the Dow the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 25347.

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly after the opening, but the early momentum tends to be waning. This could be early position-squaring ahead of Tuesday’s release of the latest report on consumer inflation.

The Dow continues to try to claw back its loss from early February. It is starting to show signs of strength, but is not performing as well as the NASDAQ-100 and the S&P 500.

The main concern for investors at this time is interest rates and the direction the Fed will take at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The great debate is whether the Fed will hint at three or four rate hikes. Last month’s steep correction was fueled by investors pricing in as many as four rate hikes.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Tuesday’s consumer inflation data could help us determine with a little certainty what the Fed is thinking. A lower than expected number, for example, combined with last Friday’s weaker than expected average hourly earnings will likely mean the Fed will be pushing for three rate hikes.

Although some investors are saying the Dow rallied on Friday because more jobs were added than expected, I think the real reason for the rally was the lower-than-expected average hourly earnings. This combined with a bad CPI number could launch the next stock market rally.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 25832 will change the main trend to up. A move through 24233 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 26723 to 23122. Its retracement zone at 25347 to 24923 is controlling the longer-term direction of the Dow. Trading on the strong side of this zone today is helping to give the Dow an early upside bias.

Inside the main retracement zone is a short-term retracement zone at 25033 to 25221. This area is new support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the Dow the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 25347.

A sustained move over 25347 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates upside momentum, we could see a surge into 25382. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

A sustained move under 25347 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential support targets at 25221, 25033 and 24923.

The potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 24923.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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