James Hyerczyk
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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures retreated from its high on Friday to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top after the release of stronger than expected jobs data reduced hope for easier Federal Reserve monetary policy. The cash market pulled back from a new all-time high, while snapping a four-day winning streak.

On Friday, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 26885, down 85 or -0.32%.

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Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, Friday’s higher-high, lower-close indicates momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 27009 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 26728 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction, or even a change in the main trend.

The main trend will change to down on a move through 26445.

The short-term range is 26445 to 27009. Its 50% level or pivot is potential support at 26727. It stopped the selling on Friday.

The intermediate range is 25897 to 27009. Its retracement zone at 26453 to 26322 is another potential target zone and support area.

The main range is 24626 to 27009. If the trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly continue into 25818 to 25536.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of the September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 26727.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 26727 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at 27009 then 27031. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.


Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 26727 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next potential downside target the intermediate 50% level at 26453, followed closely by the main bottom at 26445.

If 26445 fails to hold as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the intermediate Fibonacci level at 26322. This is a potential trigger point for an even steeper decline with targets coming in at 25897 to 25818.

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