E-mini NASDAQ-100 in Position to Post Fifth Straight Weekly Loss

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower late Friday, but up off its lowest level since 2020. The tech-weighted index is also in a position to post its fifth straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since the fourth quarter of 2012. Megacap growth stocks led the index lower, with a few exceptions including Apple Inc, which rose 0.5%.

At 20:00 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 12654.75, down 203.25, down 1.58%. At the cash market close, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) was trading $309.40, down $3.60 or -1.15%.

Although investors were mostly focused on the direction of U.S. interest rates, there was some U.S. economic news. The Labor Department presented stronger-than-expected jobs data with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 428,000 jobs in April, versus expectations of 391,000 job additions, underscoring the economy’s strong fundamentals despite a contraction in gross domestic product in the first quarter.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% in the month, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% against a forecast of a 0.4% rise. This figure was disappointing because it shows that wage growth is not keeping up with inflation.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 12519.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 13555.25 will change the main trend to up.

The minor range is 13555.25 to 12519.00. Its 50% level or pivot at 13037.25 is the nearest resistance.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 12858.00

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12858.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 12519.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This would put the index on a path toward the March 5, 2021 main bottom at 12719.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12858.00 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a late session surge into the pivot at 13037.25.

Side Notes

A close over 12858.00 will form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum two-day counter-trend rally.