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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening. Shortly before the regular session opening, investors were holding out hope that the pre-market rally from earlier lows would lead to a recovery rally. However, sellers regained control as investors continued to react to the less-than-dovish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve the day before.

At 1454 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 6330.50, down 21.75 or -0.25%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through today’s intraday low at 6287.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next target the December 9, 2017 main bottom at 6266.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the August 25, 2017 main bottom at 5880.50 the next likely downside target.

Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the index is also in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern won’t change the trend to up, but it could fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

The short-term range is 6897.00 to 6287.00. Its retracement zone at 6592.00 to 6664.00 is the first upside target.

The main range is 7169.00 to 6287.00. Its retracement zone at 6728.00 to 6832.00 is the next upside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 6352.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6352.25 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at 6592.00.

A close over 6352.25 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Friday, we could see the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6352.25 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 6287.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could generate the downside momentum needed to challenge 6266.25.

Lookout to the downside if 6266.25 fails as support. If sellers take out this level with conviction, we could see the start of a huge break. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside with 5880.50 the next major target.

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