E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – March 12, 2018 Forecast

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening, reaching a new all-time high earlier in the session. The trade is light and the index appears to be struggling to hold on to its gains, given the weakness in the Dow and S&P 500 Index.

Traders appear to be a little tentative about playing the long side ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report. This is because this report could influence next week’s Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions.

The primary concern for investors at this time is whether the Fed will raise rates three or four times in 2018. Friday’s weaker-than-expected average hourly earnings combined with weak CPI data will likely mean the Fed will raise only three times. This could launch another rally.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The market is now up six sessions from its last main bottom. On Tuesday, the index will be in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

The direction of the index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by momentum and today, there doesn’t seem to be enough upside momentum in the market to sustain the intraday rally.

The key number to watch the rest of the session is Friday’s close at 7124.25. A move below this level will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. A close below this level will form an early closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 7124.25 all session. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control today.