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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are in a position to close sharply higher on Tuesday as investing Americans took to the polls in one of the country’s most turbulent presidential elections. The price action suggests that investors bet the election would be clean and not a drawn-out process with challenges and recounts. This clarity would then lead to a swift deal on more fiscal stimulus

At 20:52 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 11231.25, up 168.00 or +1.52%.

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Democrat Joe Biden’s lead over Republican President Donald Trump in national opinion polls has raised expectations for a decisive outcome and a post-election stimulus package that would make good on Biden’s promises of infrastructure spending.

Volatility has also been sucked out of the market this week with the CBOE Volatility Index hitting a one-week low after reaching a 4-1/2 month high last week.

Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum shifted to the upside following yesterday’s closing price reversal bottom and Tuesday’s subsequent confirmation.

A trade through 10942.25 will negate the chart pattern, while a move through 10660.25 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through the nearest main top at 12249.00. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement of the current break.

The minor trend is down. A trade through 12022.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The main range is 9390.50 to 12444.75. Its retracement zone at 10917.50 to 10557.25 is major support.

The short-term range is 12249.00 to 10942.25. Its retracement zone at 11595.75 to 11750.00 is the primary upside target.

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Short-Term Outlook

Tuesday’s rally was impressive, but all it really confirmed is the support zone at 10917.50 to 10557.25. If the upside momentum continues, however, we could see the move extend into the short-term retracement zone at 11595.75 to 11750.00.

A test of 11595.75 to 11750.00 will be decision time for investors. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this area. They are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Bullish counter-trend traders, on the other hand, will try to drive the market through the short-term Fibonacci level at 11750.00. This will make 10942.25 a new main bottom.

A drive through 11750.00 will also set up a challenge of the two main tops at 12249.00 and 12444.75.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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