E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under 16280.50, Strengthens Over 16486.75

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening as investors look to extend December’s strong performance. The technology driven index is getting a boost from shares in heavyweight Tesla, which jumped after the electric carmaker posted bumper delivery numbers.

At 14:41 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 16449.75, up 129.00 or +0.79%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is at $398.50, up $0.65 or +0.16%.

Tesla’s shares rose 6.9% in premarket trading after the company’s quarterly deliveries exceeded Wall Street estimates, riding out global chip shortages as it ramped up China production.

The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 28.

A trade through 16659.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 15492.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also down. This confirmed the shift in momentum. A trade through 16313.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. A move through 16567.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The minor range is 16659.50 to 16313.75, making its 50% level at 16486.75 new resistance.

The nearest support is a Fibonacci level at 16280.50, followed by a 50% level at 16130.00.

The short-term range is 15492.00 to 16659.50. Its retracement zone at 16075.75 to 15938.00 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 16280.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 16280.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 16486.75. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a quick rally into 16567.50. This is the last potential resistance before the 16659.50 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 16280.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 16130.00 the next target.

If 16130 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into 16075.75 to 15938.00. Look for aggressive counter-trend buyers to come in on a test of this area.