E-mini NASDAQ Testing Key Fibonacci Resistance at 13984.25

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower during Monday’s pre-market session, but it’s above the opening which suggests some short-covering and perhaps some new buying. U.S. investors don’t seem to be phased by the fighting or the sanctions against Russia, probably because the war isn’t being fought on American soil.

At 08:12 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 13981.25, down 199.25 or -1.41%. This is up from in intraday low of 13683.00 and over the 13900.25 futures market opening. On Friday, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) settled at $345.87, up $5.38 or +1.58%.

Traders are going to continue to monitor the events in Ukraine with the emphasis on whether the war is escalating beyond the country’s borders. A major negative for the market will be an attack on a NATO ally. Furthermore, there is also the possibility of a cyberattack on U.S. or European countries.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on February 24.

A trade through 14668.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 13025.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 14196.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The main range is 12263.50 to 16768.00. The index is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 13984.25 to 14515.75, making it resistance.

On the downside, the minor range is 13025.75 to 14196.25. Its 50% level at 13611.00 is support.

On the upside the short-term range is 15260.00 to 13025.75. Its retracement zone at 14143.00 to 14406.50 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on Friday at 14196.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13984.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13984.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a quick rally into the short-term 50% level at 14143.00, followed closely by the minor top at 14196.25.

Taking out 14196.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger with potential resistance lined up at 14406.50, 14515.75 and 14668.50.

A trade through 14668.50 will change the main trend to up. It could also trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13984.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor pivot at 13611.00.

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of 13611.00, but if it fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with the next targets last week’s low at 13025.75, followed by the May 21, 2021 main bottom at 12968.00.