Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Oil Surge Pressures Gold Before Jobs Data

Gold (XAU) prices remain under pressure as higher oil prices fuel new inflation worries. Crude oil prices have risen with renewed tensions in the Middle East. This is bad news for gold in the short term, as investors could anticipate a continued period of higher interest rates from the Fed. The higher rates keep the gold prices under pressure. That is the reason spot gold prices remain below the 50-day SMA and look for the next move.

The market is now waiting for the US jobs data which may impact the Federal Reserve decision. If jobs come in solid, it will bolster the argument for a rate increase and continue to exert pressure on gold. But geopolitical risk remains a factor of support for gold, as investors may flock to safe-haven assets if the conflict escalates. This creates a mixed setup. The downside in gold may persist if oil prices remain higher and expectations about rate hikes continue to increase. But any significant escalation in the Middle East situation could reignite the safe haven demand.

Oil Surge and Fed Rate Fears Pressure Gold and Silver

The precious metals market remained under pressure after the U.S.-Iran war due to the strong surge in energy prices. The chart below shows that oil prices surged higher from $70 toward the $120 area after the U.S.-Iran war.

This surge in energy prices keeps Treasury yields higher and keeps the U.S. dollar index stronger. This has increased expectations of higher interest rates due to higher inflation expectations. This has kept gold and silver (XAG) prices below their key resistance levels.

Despite the strong surge in oil prices, the key support levels in gold at $4,400 to $4,500 and in silver at $72 are protecting the drop in gold and silver prices.

A break above 99.40 in the US dollar index and 4.60% in the US 10-year Treasury yields will keep the gold and silver prices under pressure.

Gold Price Forecast: Tests Key $4,400–$4,500 Support

XAUUSD Consolidates Between 50-Day and 200-Day SMAs

Gold prices consolidate between 50-day and 200-day SMAs. This consolidation range lies between $4,350 and $4,650. The 50-day SMA is flat which indicates that the gold price remains uncertain. This uncertainty stems from the uncertain conditions of the U.S.-Iran war.

However, the bullish hammer candle above $4,350 at the 200-day SMA keeps the bullish hopes alive. But the recent consolidation below the 50-day SMA has kept the gold price under pressure.

The key support zone of $4,400 to $4,500 remains the decision zone, where the gold price has been consolidating within this zone for the past 10 days. A break below this area will likely push the gold price toward $4,000.

XAUUSD Breakout Above $4,678 Could Target $4,860

The short-term price action for spot gold remains uncertain as the price remains below $4,678 at the blue trend line. A break above $4,678 will push the gold price toward $4,860. However, a break below $4,350 will keep the negative trend in the gold price and target the $4,000 area.

Silver Price Forecast: Maintains $70–$72 Decision Zone

XAGUSD Holds Key Support as Consolidation Turns Negative

The spot silver market also shows strong consolidation above the pivotal zone of $70 to $72. But the price consolidation during the past 10 days between $72 and $78.60 shows negative price action. A break below the $70 to $72 range this time will likely push the silver price toward the buy zone of the $50 to $60 region. But this drop will likely be considered a strong buy signal for the rest of 2026.

Silver Bear Flag Keeps $50–$60 Risk Alive

The short-term price action shows that the silver price rebounded from the $70 to $72 level after the breakout of the bear flag pattern on the 4-hour chart. But the rebound from $72 failed to reach $78.60, and the price action remains negative. This indicates that a break below $70 will push the silver price toward $50 to $60.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows strong consolidation between $70 and $78.60 in the short term. A break of any of these levels will define the next move in spot silver market.

What is Next for Gold and Silver Prices?

Gold and silver remain in a mixed situation as oil prices, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar continue to exert short-term pressure. Gold should maintain its bullish momentum above the $4,400-$4,500 level, while silver needs to hold the $70-$72 range to prevent further declines. If prices break below these levels, it could push gold up to $4,000 and silver into the $50-$60 buy zone. But a plunge into these lower levels could generate a better long-term buying opportunity for investors. The next step will hinge on US jobs data that will drive the next move in the U.S. dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields.

Read more: XAG/USD Faces Yield Pressure as Ratios Improve