E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Close Under 3175.25 Forms Closing Price Reversal Top

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening. Despite a few uncertainties over the U.S. trade deal with China, the price action indicates that investors see more positives than negatives from the agreement.

Earlier today, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in lower than expected at 3.5. Traders were looking for 5.1. The next key reports are Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI and NAHB Housing Market Index.

At 14:34 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3196.25, up 21.00 or +0.65%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed early Monday when buyers took out Friday’s high at 3188.25.

The main trend will change to down when buyers take out 3071.00. This is not likely today, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3118.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3196.25, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Monday will be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 3175.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3175.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. There is not resistance, but taking out the intraday high at 3196.75 will reaffirm the uptrend.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3175.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 3143.00.

Side Notes

A close under 3175.25 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed then look for a possible 2 to 3 day correction.