E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Could Strengthen Over 3971.25, Weaken Under 3928.75

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are nudging higher shortly after the release of the ADP Private Sector jobs report at 12:15 GMT. The report showed private payrolls rose by 517,000 in March, the fastest pace since September 2020, according to ADP. The total was just below the Dow Jones estimate of 525,000 but well above February’s 176,000. Hospitality led the way, with the battered sector adding 169,000 new workers.

At 12:21 GMT,  June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3953.50, up 5.75 or +0.15%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the inside trade suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

A trade through 3978.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 3843.25.

The minor range is 3843.25 to 3971.25. Its 50% level at 3907.25 is the nearest downside target.

The short-term range is 3710.50 to 3978.50. Its 50% level at 3844.50 is another potential downside target.

The uptrend is being controlled by the main retracement zone at 3813.25 to 3774.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3971.25 and 3928.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3971.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a quick spurt into 3978.50. This is a potential trigger point for an upside breakout.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3928.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 3907.25. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on the first test of this level. Taking it out could trigger an acceleration into 3844.50 to 3843.25.